From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Against the backdrop of the immense confusion following the American military actions on Venezuela, the capture of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “run” the country and “reclaim the petroleum resources”, there is no doubt – these actions create a profoundly disturbing precedent.

Past Interference and a New Threshold Crossed

The United States carries a troubling legacy of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the recent overnight operation witnessed its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “US supremacy in this hemisphere shall not be challenged from now on,” Mr Trump declared.

The choice to militarily strike another sovereign country and seize its president – mere days after he publicly sought an off-ramp – possesses far-reaching consequences. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, largely considered to have rigged the previous presidential vote. They now face profound uncertainty at best. Mr Trump has remarked that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and rejected rightwing opposition leader and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other factions of the decapitated regime are even more hardline.

The Superpower as Rogue State

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Redesignating the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He no longer views the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is transforming it into a lawless actor.

He is convinced that the America's power enables it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this new undertaking “will pay for itself”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush invaded Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or the consent of the US Congress; key legislators received no advance notice and say they were given false information in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the message this sends to global powers like Russia and China, and question the future path of the United States. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will almost certainly fuel more reckless actions.

The Thin Pretext and True Motives

No one buys the pretext that this is related to the drug trade. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently granted clemency to the past Honduran leader Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is propelled by the promise of energy wealth as well as machismo, the beliefs held by certain advisors, and the quest for a legacy as his standing with the American public falters.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The worldwide reception, especially in Europe, has – with notable outliers – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but anxiety over Mr Trump’s wrath. The strong reaction from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals make foreign conflicts more appealing.

It has been less than 12 months into his presidential term. Other governments may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.

Timothy Norton
Timothy Norton

A gaming industry analyst with over a decade of experience in slot machine development and market trends, passionate about technological innovation.