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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be finalised in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Berlin Talks Yield Significant Progress, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators indicated on Monday that around “90%” of the disputed points between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, an actual conclusion to the war is not guaranteed, particularly because Russia's lack of participation from the current dialogue.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the American legislature is expected to vote on defense assurances and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the U.S. would hold consultations with Moscow, leading to high-level meetings as soon as this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“The plan involves five key agreements. Some of them concern security guarantees: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to journalists. He stated that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, American representatives did not provide precise information regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Russia attempted to seize additional territory following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the U.S. has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in ensuring safer seas, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of proposing these actions would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. Furthermore, there is scant indication that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the type of package being negotiated between Washington and Kyiv.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Russian government stated it had not received the specifics of the proposals on security guarantees. Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from Nato countries operating in Ukraine “no matter what.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian negotiators and US negotiators remains the issue of land. A key demand centers on Kyiv ceding the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to freeze the lines. “Talks continue on the territorial issue. As is known, it is a central problem. At this point, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, led by two senior advisors, has proposed a middle-ground proposal. This framework would see Ukrainian forces pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone becoming “a free economic zone.” Moscow has suggested it could use internal security formations rather than the army in such an area, suggesting it would still expect to maintain authority there.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Russia. Neither de jure nor de facto do we accept Donbas – its temporarily occupied part – as Russian. Categorically,” said President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Possible Scenarios

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will resolve the land question. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement such as a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the Ukrainian people voted for it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” commented the president, making the statement as his aircraft departed from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and supply additional armaments if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a fair request from Ukraine to the Americans,” he added.