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At first, the former US president appeared to adopt a firm approach concerning Ukraine. Following making threats of "serious repercussions" last August if Russia's president carried on hindering ceasefire negotiations, Trump finally introduced major restrictions on the Russian biggest energy firms, Lukoil and Rosneft. This action seriously impacted Putin's capacity to support his war effort in Ukraine.

However, with his latest comprehensive peace plan for the conflict, which was developed by US and Russian officials lacking Ukrainian or EU participation, he has apparently gone back to his Russia-friendly stance.

Benefiting Aggression

Trump's proposal would in practice favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while putting Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Although ringing statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be affirmed", large portions of the initiative in reality compromise that essential sovereignty. What represents a Russian ideal would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Demonstrating his business background, Trump seems to view the Ukrainian conflict as a simple land disagreement, implying handing Russia a portion of Ukrainian soil will appease the president. However, Russia's war is not simply about controlling a charred region of industrial-devastated territory in eastern Ukraine. It is about the nation's democracy – and the Russian leader's clear goal to destroy it so it stops serves as an appealing model for the Russian citizens of the responsible government that his growing autocracy withholds them.

Territorial Surrenders

Although maintaining in place the already divided regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, the proposal would compel the nation to give up all of Donetsk region. Aside from rewarding Russia with territory that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in over a ten years of conflict, this concession would render Ukrainian military defenses severely undermined.

This region is the place of the nation's highly-touted "fortress belt", the fortified defensive positions that represent a essential obstacle to Russian advances. Trump would have Ukraine abandon these defenses, giving Russian forces a clear path to Kyiv if he subsequently choose to restart the hostilities.

Defense Restrictions

Additionally, in a move that would make future hostilities more feasible for Russia, Trump would require the nation to cut the size of its troops from their existing approximately 800,000 personnel to a cap of six hundred thousand. Significantly, Trump's proposal places no equivalent restrictions on Russia's military.

Seemingly as a accommodation to Putin's attempts to portray the nation's democratically elected government as extremists, the plan states: "All extremist ideology and activities must be condemned and banned." As if to emphasize this aspect, it requires that "Ukraine will hold elections in three months" of a ceasefire agreement. Meanwhile, the proposal places no requirement that Putin jeopardize his dictatorship by conducting elections in Russia.

Security Commitments

To be sure, the initiative includes Russia pledge not to "enter other states" and to "incorporate in regulation its stance of non-violence towards Europe and the Ukrainian people". But given that Putin has broken comparable agreements in the previous instances – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia pledged to recognize Ukraine's borders in exchange for relinquishing its former Soviet nuclear weapons, and the Minsk accords, in which Russia committed to a halt in fighting and a return of seized areas in the Donbas to the government – why should anyone trust this commitment this time?

For this reason the Ukrainian government has been so determined on international security guarantees. While the proposal warns of a "decisive unified armed reaction" in case Russia resume its invasion, and states that "The nation will receive dependable protection assurances", the specifics vary from unclear to troubling. The proposal would not only block Ukraine alliance membership but also preclude alliance nations from stationing forces on Ukraine's soil, thus preventing the reassurance force, likely led by the UK and France, on which Ukraine had been depending to stop Russia from replenishing his weakened troops, re-equipping, and resuming aggression.

Global Reaction

A separate parallel deal reportedly would grant the nation with a Nato-style security guarantee, in which any future "major, intentional, and continuous military assault" by the Russian Federation on Ukraine "will be treated as an attack endangering the peace and security of the transatlantic community." That suggests a armed reaction. Yet in contrast to a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best protection against additional hostilities – the success of the supplementary deal would hinge on the willingness of alliance members, like the US administration, to act militarily to Putin's aggression, something they have {not